![]() ![]() A hybrid algorithm, Differential Evolution - Simulated Annealing (DESA), is used to identify and estimate the parameters of the optimal SARIMA model. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on winsorized and reweighted least squares estimators. To capture the seasonal variations in dengue incidence, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and estimate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models in the presence of additive outliers. This paper attempts to provide useful models in forecasting dengue epidemic specific to the young and adult population of Baguio City. Magadia, Joselito C.Īccurate forecasting of dengue cases would significantly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. Optimization of seasonal ARIMA models using differential evolution - simulated annealing (DESA) algorithm in forecasting dengue cases in Baguio CityĪddawe, Rizavel C. That authorities negotiate agreements to accept payments for marketers’ infractions, I argue, materializes complex and complicit intersections of formal/informal and legal/illegal practices. In Baguio, Philippines public marketers counter such top-down disenfranchisement by operationalizing formal “advocacy†and informal “everyday†politics. Recrafting in/formality, leveraging public market trade in Baguio, Philippinesĭirectory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)įull Text Available With growing urbanization, Southern governments often privilege large-scale developments that frustrate urbanites’ livelihood needs. We performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results. ![]() A particular parameter is taken and with the use of the Theory of Centre Manifold, the proposed model demonstrates a bifurcation phenomenon. ![]() We showed that the system becomes stable under certain conditions of the parameters. Stability analysis for the system is carried out for disease free equilibrium. We computed and obtained conditions for the existence of the equilibrium states. We analyzed the existence of the equilibria of the dengue model. In this study, we formulate a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Baguio City, Philippines. Bifurcation analysis of dengue transmission model in Baguio City, Philippines ![]()
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